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Texas GOP eyes 5-seat gain; Democrats look to California for countermove

Jacob Shelton July 26, 2025

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SAN FRANCISCO - AUGUST 25: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom talks with reporters before test driving a plug-in version of the popular Toyota Prius that is one of four on loan to the city for evaluation August 25, 2010 in San Francisco, California. With sales of electric and plug-in hybrid cars expected to increase in the coming years, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District has set aside $5 million to increase the number of electric car charging stations to 5,000 around the Bay Area. There are currently 120 stations in the area. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Sacramento, California – As Republican leaders in Texas move forward with a controversial plan to redraw congressional districts outside the normal census cycle, Democratic state lawmakers from Texas are looking beyond their own borders for support—finding allies, and perhaps a model for response, in California and Illinois.

On Friday, Texas Democrats arrived in Sacramento and Chicago to meet with Governors Gavin Newsom and JB Pritzker, seeking advice and solidarity in the face of what they’ve characterized as an aggressive and undemocratic power grab by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. The timing of the visit coincided with ongoing public hearings in Austin that have turned volatile, with heated exchanges between lawmakers and the public, and growing concern that four heavily Black and Latino Democratic districts in Dallas and Houston could be targeted for elimination.

The push for mid-cycle redistricting in Texas follows public pressure from former President Donald Trump, who has encouraged state Republicans to leverage their dominance to engineer as many as five new GOP-held seats. Those additional seats would not only insulate the party’s fragile House majority, but also help shore up a legislative buffer for Trump’s agenda ahead of a potentially tumultuous 2026 midterm election.

California, by contrast, is constrained by its own commitment to nonpartisan redistricting. In 2008 and 2010, voters amended the state constitution to remove the power to draw legislative and congressional districts from elected officials and place it in the hands of a bipartisan citizens’ commission. That structure was heralded nationally as a model for fairness and transparency. But now, under pressure to respond to Republican redistricting offensives, Gov. Newsom has begun exploring whether California can revisit its commitment to political neutrality—at least temporarily.

After meeting with the Texas delegation, Newsom acknowledged that his administration is actively “gaming out” legal pathways to bypass or suspend the state’s redistricting commission. The most plausible route would be a special election to ask voters to approve a one-time override—possibly a temporary repeal of the commission’s authority through 2030.

But even that limited strategy is fraught with political risk. The commission remains widely popular in polling, and good-government groups have already condemned any attempt to undermine it. Internal dissent is also emerging among Democrats, some of whom worry that embracing gerrymandering in retaliation would damage California’s national credibility and further erode trust in democratic institutions.

Still, Newsom and his allies argue that the stakes go beyond California. If Texas succeeds in its plan, it could tip the national balance of power for years. With no federal guardrails in place to prevent partisan redistricting, blue states may be left to choose between adhering to democratic ideals and preserving their influence in an increasingly asymmetric political war.

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