Padres face bullpen paradox as rotation questions linger

San Diego, California – With one month to go until pitchers and catchers report to the Peoria Sports Complex, the Padres’ pitching staff is defined by a sharp and increasingly familiar contrast: overwhelming strength in the bullpen, and real questions in the starting rotation.

San Diego’s relief corps is among the deepest and most dominant in the majors. The rotation, by comparison, is thin, top-heavy, and still unfinished. And while some have floated the idea of converting relievers into starters, that door appears firmly shut.

Padres general manager A.J. Preller made that clear last month, dismissing speculation that high-leverage arms like Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, or David Morgan could be stretched out. Those pitchers are expected to remain exactly where they’ve been most effective: at the back end of games.

Which leaves the Padres with a different, more complicated option.

A trade.

San Diego has an excess of bullpen arms and holes elsewhere on the roster, most notably in the rotation and at first base. The question is no longer whether the Padres could trade from their bullpen depth. It’s whether they should — and what it would take to make it worth the risk.

As ever under Preller, no one is truly untouchable. That reality became clear earlier this offseason when reports surfaced that Miller might be available. A deal involving Miller, however, remains highly unlikely. The Padres surrendered their top prospect, Leo De Vries, to acquire him at last year’s trade deadline, and Miller was dominant down the stretch and into the postseason. With Robert Suarez gone, Miller has a clear path to becoming the franchise’s next elite closer.

If a bullpen trade happens, it’s far more likely to involve one of the setup men.

Jason Adam, coming off surgery to repair a ruptured left quad tendon, is an improbable candidate given uncertainty around his Opening Day availability. That shifts the focus to the next tier: Jeremiah Estrada, Morejon, and Morgan — with Estrada and Morejon standing out as the most intriguing possibilities.

Estrada, under team control through 2029, has the kind of raw stuff that could make him a future closer elsewhere. In San Diego, though, he currently profiles as the fourth or fifth option in high-leverage situations. If another club values Estrada as more than that — and is willing to part with a controllable mid-rotation starter — it’s a conversation the Padres would have to entertain. The same logic applies to Morgan, though his track record suggests he would command a smaller return.

Morejon is the toughest call. He has emerged as arguably the best left-handed setup man in the sport, and the Padres are notably thinner from the left side. Trading him would hurt — especially given how heavily San Diego leans on matchup flexibility late in games. But Morejon is entering the final year of team control and is set to become a free agent after the season. If the Padres could turn one year of an elite reliever into multiple years of a starting pitcher, the calculus changes.

The Padres could also look to move middle-innings lefties Wandy Peralta or Yuki Matsui, though that path is less straightforward. Both are owed guaranteed money — two years and $8.9 million remaining for Peralta, three years and $19.25 million for Matsui — and the market for non-elite relievers on multi-year deals is typically limited. Such trades would likely be more about freeing payroll than landing meaningful rotation help.

All of this runs headlong into Preller’s core belief: that the bullpen is not just a strength, but the foundation of the Padres’ recent success.

San Diego’s “super-bullpen” has proven to be a winning formula. For long stretches last season, the Padres were nearly automatic when leading after five innings. Even when trailing, their relievers kept games close enough for the offense to claw back. That formula helped carry them to the playoffs in consecutive years, despite rotation uncertainty.

“That’s probably been why we’ve been to the playoffs the last two years,” Preller said. “Lot of reasons, but that’s been a big one, the bullpen.”

He’s also been consistent in his caution. Trading from a bullpen — especially one this good — carries real risk. Relief performance is volatile, and removing even one key piece can quickly turn an elite unit into a merely good one.

“Any time you have multiple people at a spot, you at least can listen to those types of conversations,” Preller said. “But it’s not easy to find impact players. You don’t take that for granted.”

That’s where the Padres now sit. On paper, dealing from bullpen depth makes sense. In practice, Preller appears unwilling to weaken the team’s biggest advantage unless the return is overwhelming.

And that’s the crux of it.

Preller is justified in setting the asking price high. The question is whether another team will meet it — and if they don’t, how San Diego plans to solve its rotation problem before Opening Day.