51% of California voters back Newsom’s redistricting plan

Sacramento, California – For months, Gov. Gavin Newsom has argued that Democrats can’t afford to sit back while Republicans in Texas, Missouri, and elsewhere reshape the political map in their favor. Now, a new poll suggests most California voters are ready to back him.

An Emerson College survey released Friday found that 51 percent of California voters support Proposition 50, Newsom’s ballot measure to allow the state legislature to bypass the independent redistricting commission. Just 34 percent said they would vote against it, while 15 percent remain undecided.

That topline number shows a steady increase in support. A month ago, a University of California Berkeley poll put backing for the measure at 48 percent. At the same time, Newsom’s personal approval rating has ticked up—46 percent now say they approve of his job performance, compared with 44 percent last month. The overlap between the two issues is hard to ignore. Among those who support Proposition 50, nearly three-quarters also approve of Newsom’s leadership. Of those who oppose it, more than 80 percent disapprove of the governor’s work.

The plan’s stakes are national. By scrapping the commission created in 2008 under former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Proposition 50 would return the power to draw congressional districts to California’s Democratic-controlled legislature. Newsom and his allies insist it’s a necessary response to partisan gerrymandering in red states, where maps have been redrawn to lock in Republican gains ahead of the midterm elections. “Democrats can’t show up to a knife fight with a spoon,” one state lawmaker said earlier this year.

But Schwarzenegger, who once championed the commission as a safeguard against political self-dealing, has emerged as one of the most prominent critics. Speaking this week at the University of Southern California, he warned Democrats not to “become Trump” in their pursuit of political advantage. “Two wrongs don’t make a right,” he said.

That message doesn’t appear to be breaking through with most Californians. The Emerson poll found that 66 percent of voters said Schwarzenegger’s opposition made no difference to their views. Another 22 percent said it made them more likely to support the measure, while just 12 percent said it made them less likely.

Still, the 15 percent undecided could prove pivotal in November’s special election. With control of the U.S. House potentially hinging on the outcome of redistricting fights nationwide, the decision facing California voters is about more than lines on a map. It’s about whether the state that has long billed itself as a model of good governance will rewrite its rules in the name of political survival.

The Emerson College poll was conducted Sept. 15–16 among 1,000 registered voters in California and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.