FRESNO, CA, TUESDAY, APRIL 16, 2019 - Construction continues on the San Joaquin River Viaduct section of the California High Speed Rail Project. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Sacramento, California – The California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) published updated plans on Friday outlining three potential futures for the state’s long-delayed rail project. The document offers Californians a clearer sense of where the trains could actually run, and when. But just as important, it underscores how much will depend on whether the state can secure the funding and approvals needed to push beyond the Central Valley.
At the center of the announcement is a 171-mile starter line between Merced and Bakersfield. Already under construction, the segment is expected to cost nearly $37 billion and—if all goes as planned—could begin service on January 1, 2032. Officials project it will carry as many as 2.2 million riders annually. But with expected operating revenues falling well short of the $120 million-plus needed for maintenance, the line would almost certainly run at a deficit in its early years.
A second option would extend the line north to Gilroy, offering through-service to San Francisco and Sacramento. That expansion carries a price tag of about $54 billion, and officials say it could be operational by early 2038. Unlike the starter line, this version would likely be more financially sustainable, with ridership estimates of up to 11.8 million passengers and as much as $883 million in annual ticket revenue.
The third and most ambitious vision would stretch the system south to Palmdale, linking it to Los Angeles and creating the possibility of a future connection with Brightline West, the private rail line now under construction between Las Vegas and Southern California. That build-out could cost $87 billion but promises the most transformative effect, with projections of up to 17.4 million passengers a year and revenue topping $1.6 billion.
CHSRA CEO Ian Choudri framed the proposals not just as infrastructure blueprints but as a chance to redefine the state’s future. “I see clearer now more than ever the potential for this transformational project,” he said. “By 2038 to 2039, operations can connect the Central Valley to population centers and innovation hubs, offering new career opportunities, economic mobility, affordable housing, and a cleaner environment.”
The new proposals land against a contentious backdrop. In July, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy revoked $4 billion in federal funding for the project, a move Governor Gavin Newsom blasted as an effort by the Trump administration to cripple California’s vision. “Trump wants to hand China the future and abandon the Central Valley. We won’t let him,” Newsom said.
Whether California ultimately builds a true San Francisco-to-Los Angeles high-speed line—or only a Central Valley spur—will depend on whether state leaders can piece together the money, approvals, and political will. For now, the tracks are being laid, but the destination remains uncertain.
