Voters approved $33 Billion—Now California rail may cost 4x more

Sacramento, California – California’s embattled high-speed rail project is entering another critical phase—this time with fewer federal dollars and more state pressure. Governor Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 377 into law on Wednesday, requiring the California High-Speed Rail Authority to present a comprehensive funding strategy for the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment as part of its 2026 business plan.

The move comes just weeks after President Donald Trump’s administration officially revoked $4 billion in federal grant money for the project, calling it a “boondoggle” and citing unmet promises. California officials, who are suing to recoup the funds, argue that the decision is politically motivated and legally dubious. Meanwhile, the project’s costs have ballooned from $33 billion to an estimated $89–$128 billion, with only a fraction of the envisioned route under construction.

Originally pitched to voters in 2008 as a sleek, three-hour rail link between San Francisco and Los Angeles by 2020, the vision has since narrowed to a more modest 171-mile route between Merced and Bakersfield, now projected to open by 2033. Despite delays and rising expenses, Governor Newsom has continued to frame the rail as a generational investment in sustainable transportation, and a necessary infrastructure project amid the broader global race for high-speed rail dominance.

Assembly Bill 377 mandates that the rail authority update cost estimates, assess construction and funding risks, and present options for service initiation in the Central Valley—steps meant to bring greater clarity to a project that has long suffered from shifting timelines and inconsistent public messaging. The bill’s author, Assemblymember David Tangipa of Fresno, framed the legislation as a safeguard against leaving Central Valley residents with a half-built system and billions in wasted taxpayer dollars.

The high-speed rail effort now faces the dual challenge of restoring lost federal support and convincing both lawmakers and the public that it can deliver meaningful service in the foreseeable future. Newsom has floated extending California’s cap-and-trade program through 2045, which could generate an estimated $1 billion annually to keep the project moving. State officials are also exploring expansion routes north to Gilroy and south to Palmdale, which would increase regional connectivity and potentially attract private investment.

With the federal government pulling back, California is once again left to navigate its most ambitious infrastructure project alone. The rail authority is expected to submit its updated business plan and funding roadmap in 2026. In the meantime, construction continues across the Central Valley, even as skepticism grows and timelines stretch further from the promises made nearly two decades ago.