I voted stickers await voters next to ballots at the polls set up in Eastham Town Hall. Voters were being asked to spend money on a wastewater and sewer project. Photo taken June 24, 2025
Los Angeles, California – In what some may see as an inevitable consequence of political overreach, the Republican Party’s foothold in California is slipping—again. New voter registration data shows a sharp decline in Republican affiliation across the state, even as GOP strategists had recently begun talking about California as a possible site of resurgence.
According to figures compiled by political data analyst Paul Mitchell and shared via Capitol Weekly, the proportion of Californians registered as Republicans has fallen from 28% in December 2024 to just 23% in June 2025. Over the same period, Democratic registration rose from 43% to 46%. Independents, or those registered with no party preference, held steady.
Among new voters—those with no prior voting history—the numbers are even starker. In December, 26% of new registrants aligned with the GOP. As of June, that number has dropped to 19%.
This dip comes just months after the 2024 general election, where Republicans gained ground statewide. Donald Trump improved his performance in nearly every county, the state shifted 12 points toward the GOP compared to 2020, and Republicans flipped three seats in the California Legislature. The momentum, however, appears to be waning just as quickly as it emerged.
The numbers come at a time when the federal government—under Trump’s renewed leadership—has increasingly focused its political firepower on California, treating the state less as a sovereign part of the union and more as a rogue actor. Federal lawsuits targeting California’s immigration policies, transgender protections in schools, and educational programs have painted the state as ideologically suspect. Billions in education funding have been withheld, and federal officials have openly described California as being out of step with national priorities.
For Californians, the message seems clear: this is not just a disagreement over policy. It’s an attempt to redefine which kinds of states deserve support—and which do not.
Given that backdrop, the decline in Republican registration is less surprising than it is symbolic. It reflects not just a shift in party loyalty but a reaction to the escalating sense that California is under siege from a federal government acting more like a partisan enforcer than a neutral administrator.
Political science professor Thad Kousser of UC San Diego told Newsweek that the GOP might find itself playing defense in 2026, especially as Trump’s deeply unpopular immigration enforcement actions and education cuts continue to alienate many California voters. While Republicans nationally may have made gains with some demographic groups, those gains are not yet translating into meaningful voter registration in the country’s most populous—and most scrutinized—state.
With all 80 Assembly seats and half the State Senate up for grabs in November 2026, Republicans still have time to regroup. But for now, the numbers tell a familiar story: California continues to drift away from the Republican Party, just as federal pressure intensifies.
