Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a memorial ceremony for former President Jimmy Carter in the Rotunda at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 7, 2025 in Washington, DC. Carter's body will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda until a funeral service at the National Cathedral in Washington on January 9.
Los Angeles, California – If former Vice President Kamala Harris chooses to run for governor of California, she would enter the race as the early frontrunner, according to a new poll conducted by the University of California, Irvine in partnership with Truedot. But the survey also reveals a striking degree of voter uncertainty—and a potential ceiling to Harris’s support.
In a head-to-head matchup with an unnamed Republican, Harris garnered 41 percent support, compared to 29 percent for the GOP candidate. But 30 percent of respondents either said they wouldn’t vote or were unsure, underscoring the unsettled nature of the 2026 race.
Harris, who has given herself until the end of the summer to make a decision, is weighing her next political move after her failed 2024 presidential bid. Despite lingering concerns among some Democratic donors who fear her candidacy could reopen wounds from that campaign, she retains significant strengths in California: name recognition, a national fundraising network, and a history of winning statewide elections.
The polling reflects that advantage. In a separate question pitting Harris against a field of seven other declared and potential candidates—none identified by party—she led with 24 percent support. Her closest rival was developer and former L.A. mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, who registered just 9 percent. But 40 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
The polling was conducted in two waves: one from May 27 to June 2, and another from May 29 to June 4, surveying more than 4,000 Californians in total. Harris emerged from both surveys with the highest net favorability—11 percentage points positive—among all potential candidates tested.
Still, the large share of undecided voters presents a challenge not just for Harris but for the entire field. California’s post-Newsom political landscape remains unsettled, and Harris’s indecision has frozen the race. Several prominent Democrats, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Rep. Katie Porter, have declared their campaigns. Others, like Attorney General Rob Bonta, have stepped back—citing Harris’s potential entry as a “field-clearing” force.
That chilling effect has bought Harris time but also raised expectations. If she enters, she will likely face pressure to consolidate support quickly in a fractured and competitive field. If she declines, the Democratic contest will open wide, likely sparking a new wave of fundraising and endorsements.
Though Harris has also appeared in early 2028 presidential polling, where her standing has recently slipped behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, her next political step may be closer to home. For now, California’s voters—and its political class—remain in limbo, waiting on a decision that could reshape the race.
