SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 14: Protesters attend the 'No Kings' rally in San Diego, California on Saturday, June 14, 2025, on the same day as President Trump's military parade in Washington, DC. In response to the military parade celebrating the 250th anniversary of the US Army but also coinciding with Trump's 79th birthday, a 'No Kings' movement has sprung up promising to stage protests in more than 2,000 places across the country. In San Diego County, California the police estimate that over 20,000 people marched in protest of Trump. (Photo by Carlos A. Moreno/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Los Angeles, California – A new poll released this week reveals that 44 percent of California adults would support the state’s peaceful and legal withdrawal from the United States—marking the highest-ever level of support for secession recorded in polling history, according to the Independent California Institute (ICI), which commissioned the survey. While a slim majority of respondents remain opposed, the data reflect a profound and growing sense of disconnection between California and the federal government.
The survey, conducted by YouGov between June 11 and 23, polled 500 California adults and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points. Among those polled, 50 percent said they trust California state government in Sacramento more than the federal government in Washington, D.C., compared to just 23 percent who said the opposite. That shift marks a significant deterioration in federal favorability since January, when trust levels were more evenly split.
California, the most populous and economically powerful state in the country, has long had a contentious relationship with Republican-led federal administrations. Tensions have escalated in recent months after President Donald Trump deployed thousands of National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles to quell protests against immigration enforcement. Governor Gavin Newsom publicly opposed the deployment, setting off a legal standoff and sparking broader questions about federal overreach and state autonomy.
The political divide is further underscored by public opinion around immigration enforcement and border controls. According to the poll, 72 percent of Californians support state police arresting federal immigration agents who act maliciously or exceed their authority, and 80 percent back stronger border checks for illegal guns and contraband entering the state. A majority also favor creating a pathway to state citizenship for long-term noncitizen residents, while 71 percent support negotiating a form of “special autonomous status” within the United States.
Taken together, these results suggest that while most Californians may not be ready to sever ties with the U.S. entirely, a growing number are demanding greater self-governance and protections from what they perceive as an increasingly antagonistic federal government.
The Independent California Institute framed the poll as a reflection of both public frustration and political opportunity. Though the path to actual secession remains legally implausible and politically distant, the rise in secessionist sentiment could empower California leaders—like Governor Newsom—with greater leverage in future negotiations with Washington.
The data speak to a mounting desire for change, but also raise a deeper question: Can a country heal when its largest state is flirting with exit? For now, the challenge lies not in walking away—but in bridging divides within the same flag.
