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$4.3 Billion for 22 miles: California rail plan raises eyebrows over costs and priorities

Jacob Shelton June 26, 2025

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Construction continues Wednesday, March 30, 2022 on pillars for High Speed Rail in Hanford just north of Highway 198.

Santa Cruz, California – A proposed electric rail line in Santa Cruz County is facing renewed scrutiny after a newly released report projected the total cost at $4.3 billion—roughly $194.5 million per mile. The Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail (ZEPRT) project would convert a dormant 22-mile freight corridor into a commuter rail system, integrating electric trains, a multi-use trail, and a sweeping overhaul of regional infrastructure.

Unveiled in a draft executive summary on June 6 by the Santa Cruz County Regional Transportation Commission (RTC), the plan envisions a future of greener, more connected transit. But with a price tag that rivals some of the most expensive rail projects in the country, even supporters are questioning whether the ambition is matched by fiscal realism.

The proposal includes the electrification of the entire corridor, replacement of 21 aging bridges, construction of 15 new stations, and two facilities for train storage and maintenance. Additional costs stem from upgrading rail crossings, integrating with other transit systems, and navigating challenging terrain—including flood zones and unstable soil.

What does this add up to? A staggering $1.28 billion in contingency costs alone—nearly a third of the entire budget.

If completed, the ZEPRT line would run from Pajaro Junction near Watsonville to western Santa Cruz County, terminating near the UC Santa Cruz area. Trains would run every 15 minutes during peak hours and every 30 minutes at off-peak times, with annual ridership projected at 1.4 million by 2045, or roughly 5,300 daily boardings.

Supporters say the investment is necessary to build sustainable, long-term infrastructure. In the draft report, the RTC emphasized the extensive public engagement that informed the project, calling the plan a “reflection of local community values.”

Yet critics are raising concerns not only about the mounting cost, but about whether the ridership projections—and environmental gains—justify the scale of the investment.

“The estimate still feels low,” said Jack Brown, executive director of Santa Cruz’s Coastal Trail Conservancy. “They’ve been trying to push back against a $5 billion price tag, but not convincingly. We need a practical, sustainable approach to addressing transit, congestion and housing. One that doesn’t bankrupt future generations.”

With a final funding strategy expected in 2026 and construction unlikely to begin before 2028, the ZEPRT remains years away from reality. But the latest projections have already ignited a broader debate over infrastructure priorities in a state grappling with affordability crises, climate imperatives, and limited trust in big-ticket projects.

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