The earthquake shock was registered by the seismograph at the Sea Lab Marine Science Education Center in New Bedford.
California – A leading geoscientist has warned that a devastating earthquake in the Pacific Northwest could be “imminent,” with potentially catastrophic consequences for coastal communities from Northern California to Washington.
Tina Dura, a geosciences professor at Virginia Tech, led a new study examining the compounded risks of sea-level rise and powerful earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone—a major fault line that runs offshore from Northern California to British Columbia. The study highlights a worst-case scenario: a massive earthquake causing land to suddenly drop by up to two meters, dramatically increasing the risk of flooding as ocean waters surge in.
“We worry about the next big event being imminent,” Dura said, noting that it has been more than 300 years since the last major Cascadia earthquake in 1700. “We expect something like the Japan 2011 or Sumatra 2004 earthquakes and tsunamis to occur there.”
Though it’s impossible to predict the exact timing, Dura stressed that the region is well within the window of geological possibility. According to the National Seismic Hazard Model, there is a 15% chance of a magnitude 8 or larger quake occurring in the next 50 years. By 2100, that risk jumps to 30%.
The consequences of such a quake would go far beyond shaking and tsunamis. The study found that sudden land subsidence from a Cascadia event could expand floodplains by up to 300 square kilometers (116 square miles), doubling the number of homes, roads, and infrastructure exposed to flooding. With sea-level rise expected to intensify by 2100, flood risk zones could increase to 370 square kilometers (143 square miles), tripling exposure. According to Dura:
The risks from a Cascadia earthquake go beyond shaking and tsunamis. Sudden land subsidence during the quake can instantly expand flood zones and leave low-lying areas permanently more vulnerable.
To mitigate future disaster, Dura emphasized the need for action at all levels. Individuals should prepare emergency kits, understand evacuation routes, and plan for at least a week without outside help. At the community level, governments must invest in resilient infrastructure, update land-use policies, and prioritize the most vulnerable populations.
“These overlapping hazards can turn a bad disaster into a much worse one,” she said. “We have to plan ahead with the full picture in mind.”
