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Sacramento, California – California may be on the brink of an energy and economic crisis, with gas prices projected to surge by up to 75 percent over the next 18 months, according to a stark warning from Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones.
In a letter to Governor Gavin Newsom, Jones urged immediate intervention to prevent the planned closures of two key oil refineries—Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia—which supply about 20% of the state’s gasoline. Phillips 66 is set to shutter by late 2025, and Valero will close by April 2026.
Jones cited projections by University of Southern California Professor Michael Mische, who estimates that gas prices could jump to $6.43 per gallon after the first closure, potentially reaching $8.43 per gallon by the end of 2026.
“Let’s be clear: Newsom owns this gas crisis,” Jones wrote. “His policies have made it nearly impossible for California refineries to stay open.”
California already has the highest gas prices in the continental U.S., with last month’s average price at $4.85 per gallon—about $1.69 above the national average. Twice in the past two years, per-gallon prices have exceeded $6, triggering public outcry and emergency legislation.
Jones warned that higher gas prices would deepen the state’s cost-of-living crisis and threaten thousands of jobs. The two refineries directly employ 1,300 people and support nearly 3,000 others statewide.
Critics argue that high taxes, strict environmental regulations, and unique fuel requirements have made operating refineries in California financially unfeasible. Jones called for emergency measures like investment tax credits and regulatory relief to help preserve the state’s fuel infrastructure.
Governor Newsom, whose administration has long been critical of the oil industry, has recently signaled a more collaborative approach. In a letter to the California Energy Commission, he called for July recommendations on maintaining a stable fuel supply during the state’s clean energy transition.
While some experts agree that refinery closures will raise fuel prices, the scale of the increase remains uncertain. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy told the San Francisco Chronicle that prices could rise modestly in stable conditions, but warned that supply shocks could drive prices up by $1.50 or more.
Newsom spokesperson Daniel Villaseñor emphasized that the governor has instructed agencies to work with refiners to avoid supply disruptions. “Governor Newsom will keep fighting to protect Californians from price spikes at the pump,” Villaseñor said.
Still, Jones argues the threat is too serious to ignore. “We’re not just losing gas,” he said. “We’re losing jobs, local economies, and our grip on affordable living in California.”
