Oct 16, 2021; San Pedro, Calif., USA; Cargo ships wait to be off loaded at the Port of Los Angeles. Supply chain issues have caused shortages of goods throughout the country with cargo ships waiting off shore in Southern California to off-load. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY Staff ORG XMIT: USAT-471685 [Via MerlinFTP Drop] Xxx News Supply Chain 005 Jpg A Oth
Southern California – A steep decline in cargo volume at California’s twin mega ports—Los Angeles and Long Beach—is raising alarms across the U.S. economy, as new tariffs on Chinese goods take hold and ripple through supply chains, job markets, and retail shelves.
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, announced this week that he expects the incoming cargo volume to fall by more than 35% compared to the same period in 2024, as major U.S. retailers halt shipments from China. The port’s internal tracking system, the Port Optimizer, forecasts a sharp drop due to escalating trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff hike.
“Shipments from China account for about 45% of our volume,” Seroka said on CNBC. “This is a precipitous drop, and we’re seeing a wave of shipment cancellations.”
That drop-off is already taking a toll on the Port of Long Beach. CEO Mario Cordero said the port is bracing for a 30% decrease in cargo volume in the second quarter and 20% in the second half of 2025. In the first quarter of the year, Long Beach had led the nation in container volume—making the downturn especially stark.
Keep in mind that this is happening just ahead of the peak season at the Southern California ports. Back-to-school and holiday shopping goods are imported during the July through fall stretch. Those orders need to be placed in May, and right now, that’s not happening.
The impact goes beyond empty ships. Combined, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach support more than 165,000 direct and indirect jobs and generated $21.8 billion in local revenue last year. Cordero warned that fewer containers mean fewer jobs on the docks, warehouses, and trucking. A 2023 report estimated that even a 1% drop in port cargo could eliminate nearly 2,800 jobs and jeopardize 4,000 more.
The trade standoff has created deep uncertainty. Tariffs exceeding 100% on many goods are leading companies to rethink logistics, reroute shipments, or avoid imports entirely. While some shippers are turning to Southeast Asia, Seroka said it won’t be enough to make up the gap.
For American consumers, the fallout could show up in reduced selection and higher prices. “You won’t see empty shelves immediately,” Seroka said, “but you’ll notice fewer choices and more expensive items, especially by mid-summer.”
Despite hope for new negotiations, neither Washington nor Beijing has signaled a breakthrough. Until then, the economic toll at California’s ports and across the country will likely deepen.
