DOGE promised $2 Trillion in cuts. So far? Spending’s up $156 Billion

Washington D.C. – In a paradox that is already defining Donald Trump’s second term, government spending is surging—even as Elon Musk’s radical government downsizing effort, DOGE, claims victory in gutting the federal bureaucracy.

Originally pitched by Musk during a live X Spaces campaign event last August — after three separate prompts before Trump acknowledged it — the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) has quickly become one of the most disruptive forces in Washington. Since Trump’s inauguration, DOGE has shredded agency payrolls, fired or pushed out nearly a quarter-million federal workers, eliminated foreign aid programs, slashed education budgets, and claimed $160 billion in savings.

However, according to the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model, total government spending has increased by 6.3% since Trump returned to office—or roughly $156 billion more than the same period last year. Even adjusted for inflation, that still amounts to $81.2 billion in new federal outlays.

“In a sense, it’s more successful than you might have thought. In a sense, it’s less,” said one administration official close to DOGE, granted anonymity to speak freely.

So far, DOGE’s most aggressive cuts have been in foreign aid and education. The U.S. Agency for International Development was dismantled within weeks, with about 10,000 staff let go and programs abruptly halted. Education spending also dropped significantly, down $10 billion year-over-year. But the promised $2 trillion in savings has yet to materialize, and other spending areas — including defense and health — remain untouched or even expanded.

DOGE was created as a top-down blitz by Musk, a “special government employee” who still leads Tesla, SpaceX, and social media giant X. With little oversight, Musk embedded his own engineers—some with no public sector experience—inside agencies to implement cuts based on the tech mogul’s management ethos: trim 20% more than necessary, then add back if essential.

That philosophy has proven chaotic. Several agencies have already rehired staff Musk’s team had cut, including workers in nuclear energy, public health, and regulatory science. Critics say the rapid downsizing has weakened core government functions and sparked public backlash, particularly in rural health and veterans’ services.

DOGE’s disruptive approach has drawn at least 60 lawsuits and growing bipartisan concern in Congress. Meanwhile, Musk’s popularity is slipping. His net worth has dropped by over $100 billion amid declining Tesla sales and politically charged boycotts. Musk has also stepped back from DOGE leadership, committing only “a day or two” per week.

Still, DOGE’s footprint endures. Smaller embedded teams continue to pursue agency reductions, and a major immigration surveillance project is underway. But Max Stier, head of the Partnership for Public Service, warned the damage could outlast Musk’s involvement.

“They’ve gotten rid of important capability, amazing talent, and deep relationships,” said Stier. “To rebuild will take not 100 days, but years.”