Fourth-generation farmer Tom Frantz says oil waste has stunted a neighbor’s almond trees. Kern County Oil 53 2
Fresno County, California – As the possibility of a trade war looms, California’s agricultural leaders are calling on the state’s Congressional delegation to shield them from the economic fallout of retaliatory tariffs. A coalition of nearly two dozen influential farming organizations—including the California Farm Bureau, Western Growers, and American Pistachio Growers—has issued a letter warning of potential market disruptions that could devastate the state’s $23.6 billion export industry.
The coalition’s letter, dated March 3, cautions that broad-based tariffs could significantly disrupt both short-term and long-term agricultural markets. This isn’t the first time California farmers have found themselves in the crosshairs of a trade dispute. During former President Donald Trump’s first term, a trade war with China slashed agricultural exports, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. While the USDA’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP) provided $14.5 billion in relief, California’s specialty crop farmers received less than 2.3% of those funds.
“We recognize the intent behind some of these trade actions, but we remain concerned that broad-based tariffs will harm California farmers,” the letter states. The USDA estimated that retaliatory tariffs in 2018 cost U.S. farmers $27 billion, with California tree nut growers suffering $239 million in losses.
Trump has now threatened 25% tariffs on three of the U.S.’s largest trade partners—China, Mexico, and Canada—seeking to pressure them into taking more action against fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. However, Senator Adam Schiff acknowledged the frustration among California farmers, citing the billions lost during the last trade war and the disproportionate allocation of relief funds to Midwest commodity crops like corn and soybeans.
“If we go through another round of tariffs and suffering, I want to ensure that California farmers receive fair compensation,” said Schiff, who serves on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. “But I’m skeptical.”
The potential tariffs could have severe consequences for key agricultural products. Mexico supplies 90% of the avocados consumed in the U.S., while 70% of California almonds and nearly 80% of pistachios are exported, with major producers in Fresno, Kern, Stanislaus, Merced, and Madera counties. Farmers like Matthew Efrid, a fifth-generation almond and pistachio grower, worry about repeating the devastating losses of 2018.
“It was helpful, but it didn’t make us whole,” Efrid said of previous bailout funds. “A lot of family farms are really hurting right now.”
The California wine industry is already feeling the effects. Natalie Collins, president of the California Association of Winegrape Growers, noted that Canadian importers have begun pulling American wines from store shelves in anticipation of tariffs.
“Even before a tariff was in place, the harm was already done,” she said. “It’s getting harder and harder to be in ag.”
Colin A. Carter, an agricultural economist at UC Davis, has studied the impact of tariffs on California farming and warns that losses could reach $6 billion. Carter also expressed doubt over the likelihood of another government bailout, especially given Trump’s current focus on cost-cutting. With Elon Musk leading the newly established “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), Carter believes securing relief funds will be an uphill battle.
“I can’t see Elon Musk approving a massive bailout for farmers,” he said. “It raises questions about all farm programs, including crop insurance and subsidies.”
As California farmers brace for potential economic turmoil, industry leaders remain hopeful that Congressional intervention will prevent history from repeating itself.
