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Billions over budget! California’s bullet train may stall within 15 months

Jacob Shelton April 1, 2025

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Construction continues Wednesday, March 30, 2022 on pillars for High Speed Rail in Hanford just north of Highway 198.

Bakersfield, California – California’s high-speed rail project is facing a significant financial shortfall, with a $7 billion funding gap threatening to halt progress on the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment within the next 15 months. Lawmakers were briefed on the funding challenges during a recent State Assembly budget meeting, where representatives from the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) outlined the concerns.

Helen Kerstein, a representative from the LAO, told lawmakers that there is currently no concrete plan to bridge the $7 billion shortfall. The total cost for this segment of the project is now estimated at $35.3 billion. Without a funding solution in place by June 2026, construction could come to a stop.

“The legislature would benefit from additional information, updated information on costs and funding as soon as that’s available,” Kerstein said. She added that the California High-Speed Rail Authority is working on a proposed funding strategy, but details remain unclear.

During the meeting, lawmakers also questioned the practicality of the high-speed rail project in California, particularly in comparison to Japan, where similar systems have been highly successful.

“California and Japan are almost the exact same size in terms of long, narrow countries,” said State Assemblymember and Committee Chair Steve Bennett. “Yet, Japan has four times the population of California. It makes it much less risky for private companies to invest in high-speed rail when you have 130 million people versus 40 million.”

With the June 2026 deadline looming, some lawmakers expressed concerns about making additional financial commitments without a clear funding plan.

“I do not think that we can make ongoing commitments to the high-speed rail project in the absence of that information,” said Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris.

Bennett acknowledged the benefits of high-speed rail but emphasized the economic challenges of implementing the system in California.

“The high-speed rail is a wonderful concept,” he said. “But the practical implications of it in California, with two dense population centers that you’re trying to connect, present a different kind of economic challenge compared to places like China or Japan.”

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